The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. SHFE tin fluctuates, waiting for non-farm payrolls guidance. [SMM tin futures brief comment]

Daily Review of Tin Futures on July 1, 2025

​​The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Opening price at 267,800 yuan/mt, maintaining a fluctuating trend during the day, and surging sharply in the final trading session to close at 269,840 yuan/mt (up 0.63% from the previous day), with an intraday range of 266,160-269,840 yuan/mt. Trading volume: 70,070 lots (down 35.6% from the previous day), open interest: 31,494 lots (a slight increase of 10 lots).

​​​​Macro sentiment provides support​​: The US core PCE price index rose 2.7% YoY in May, but personal consumption expenditures fell 0.3% MoM, strengthening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts (with the probability for September rising to 65%). The US dollar index pulled back to around 96, alleviating valuation pressure on commodities.

​​Supply pressure emerges​​: Some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces halted production for maintenance, coupled with slower-than-expected production resumptions at Myanmar tin mines, leading to heightened expectations for supply shortages.

​​Weakness in traditional sectors​​: Demand for tinplate related to real estate remains sluggish, with downstream restocking mainly driven by "small orders for immediate needs," and high prices curbing the willingness to stock up.

The most-traded LME tin contract​​: Closing price at $33,815/mt (up 0.19%), supported by low inventory, maintaining high spot premiums, and highlighting structural shortages.

​​Macro factors dominate dollar-denominated commodities​​: If the US non-farm payrolls data (to be released on July 3) indicates a deterioration in employment, it may further boost expectations for interest rate cuts, driving LME tin prices to break through the resistance level of $34,000/mt.

​​SHFE tin​​: Support level at 265,000 yuan/mt; resistance level at 272,000 yuan/mt (previous high pressure).

If the US non-farm payrolls data is weak, it may trigger a rebound.

​​LME tin​​: Key resistance at $34,000/mt (a technical breakthrough requires macro support); support at $33,000/mt.